Trading volume was disappointing as it only increased slightly in this last week when the market rallies after the rebound. The average daily trading volume last week was 750 million shares and the previous week’s average was 662 million. Average daily trading volume below 1billion shares are considered weak. The market was slightly bullish because of positive leads locally and internationally. Locally, industrial production and export numbers were growing on-month and jobless rate fell. World Bank confidence about having a positive GDP in year 2010 and increasing foreign participation in the local equity market boost confidence further.

Internationally, governments in developed nations are confident that the global economy is improving and Australia is the first G-20 nation to raise key interest rates since the start of the global financial crisis more than a year ago as the government believes that the emergency low rates are no longer needed. In the world’s largest economy, manufacturing increases and jobless claim declines.

Daily FBMKLCI Chart

The US Dollar continues to slide against major currencies, continuing its down trend. This again has pressured prices of commodities to increase. Price of Gold in COMEX continues to make historical highs and is currently at US$1,050 an ounce, increasing 5% in a month. Crude Oil in NYMEX continues to stay around US$70 a barrel. Rubber futures in TOCOM slightly rose month-to­-month but it jumps about 6% last week to JPY$214.80 a kg. However, Crude Palm Oil futures in Europe Store Exchange declined from EUR 2,200 per metric ton a month ago to EUR 2,030.

The FBMKLCI is well supported by the short term trend. The benchmark index continues to stay above the short to long term 30 to 90-day moving averages despite several pullbacks from the uptrend that started in April. A major correction is yet to be seen in this 6 months bullish trend. Momentum indicators are about to turn bullish again after mixed signals in the past few weeks.

The RSI and Momentum indicators are starting to move away from the middle level and the MACD indicator is about to cross above its trigger line or 9-day moving average. ADX indicator has just started to increase again, showing good strength in momentum last week.

The Bollinger Bands started to expand again with the FBMKLCI penetrating the top bands after testing the middle band two weeks ago. The same situation (the expansion) happened exactly a month ago and the FBMKLCI made new highs for the year. Therefore, we may expect the same to happen again and this time the projection is 1,280 points before it finds the next resistance. The average daily trading range is the same as the previous week.

Price Map - Direction Forecast

The immediate support and resistance levels are still at 1,196 points and 1,230 points respectively. The FBMKLCI is currently testing this resistance level for the second time in a month. The market is set to test newer highs because of the strong bullish reversal and breakout. The next resistance level is between 1,280 and 1,300 points. However, if the market fails to make new highs and the FBMKLI falls below the 1,196 points support level, then the next support level it is going to test is at 1,150 points.

Looking ahead, the leading Ichimoku Cloud indicator continues to contract last week and this indicates that the support for the uptrend is getting thinner. Being a leading technical indicator, a major trend reversal is not expected until the cloud bands cross. Therefore, there is still a chance for the market to maintain its uptrend at least for another month.

The market sentiment is still bullish and the FBMKLCI is expected to rise in the short term to the next resistance level between 1,280 and 1,300 points. This is only valid if the benchmark index stays above the immediate 1,196 points support level. In the longer term, a major correction is expected to take place once the index moves into the next resistance level. My price map/direction forecast chart for FBMKLCI remains the same as last month.

Therefore, current opportunity is only good for short term traders who trades short term profits because the market is expected to test new highs but with a limited upside. However, accumulating shares for the long term (3 to 5 years) may be too risky at current levels as prices are way above the long term average. Opportunity for long term accumulation only exists when the market pulls back to its long term average or below it (a 200-day moving average can be used as a benchmark).

So, longer term investors have to patiently wait for a major correction to happen. My longer term

forecast (1 year) for the FBMKLCI when it goes into a major correction is still at 900 points and therefore accumulating shares when the index moves to this level or slightly above provide a better low risk opportunity for longer term investors.

Malaysia Export and Imports Chart

We previously warned that whilst there will be some sporadic spurts of stronger exports, they may not signal a meaningful recovery yet. Our view is that exports may not recover to levels seen in mid-2008 for another 2-3 years. For example, there are several good company like FOONG LI TRADING – premier supplier of good quality sawn timber, timber products, plywood products, doors & window frame, beadings, moulding.

The YoY fall in Aug-09 exports computed continued to be led by a collapse of manufactured goods exports, weakness in commodity prices and a lower volume of commodity exports.

US workers facing record periods of unemployment, negative personal income growth in 4 of the last 6 quarters, and a sharp fall in wealth, will cut spending on the so many discretionary spending items that have formed the core of Asian exports, cannot anchor a global recovery. Restocking by businesses and

public sector spending can only provide a temporary bounce in output that must be rejoined by a consumer spending revival. A revival with conviction of investment spending by businesses is also out of the picture at this juncture with low capacity utilization globally at this juncture.

Weakening of exports accelerated in major markets. ASEAN exports accounting for 25.7% of total, fell a steeper 24.4%YoY (Jul-09: -20.1%YoY) on lower exports of electronics products, refined petroleum products and transport equipment.

Asia Export Growth League Table

Exports to China rose +0.9% YoY (Jul-09: -16.9% MoM), the first increase YoY in 10 months on gains in exports of electronics and crude oil. Exports to China were also 10.3% higher MoM. The positive YoY growth was due to a lower statistical base in Aug-08, the month when severe drops in exports to China began to be recorded in 2008. Exports to the US dropped (-26.7% YoY vs -29.0%YoY in Jul-09), also falling 7.8%MoM on lower electronics exports. The pace of drop in exports to Japan slowed (-25.0% YoY in Aug-09 vs -32.7% YoY in Jul-09) on gains in LNG and crude oil exports. The pace of drop for exports to the EU at -25.9% YoY was however, steeper compared to Jul-09′s -23.9%YoY due to palm oil as well as chemicals and chemical products exports letting up as the recession in major Euro zone economies particularly Germany.

Exports of Electronics were a shade lower MoM at RM20.57b in Aug-09 after rising for the 6th month in a row to RM20.63b in Jul-09 from RM18.6b in Jun-09 and constituted 43% (Jul-09: 42.2%) of exports although still down -13.1%YoY vs -15.6% YoY in Jul-09. Palm Oil exports making up 6.2% of exports (Jul-09: 8.1%) were down a sharper -35.3%YoY (Jun-09: -33.5% YoY) after a major MoM drop. Oil and Gas exports making up 12.5% of exports (Jun-1 09: 12.0%) fell 50% YoY, still amongst the most affected of export categories.

Chemicals and Chemical Products which contributed 6.1% of exports (Jul-09: 6.2%) fell -19.0%YoY (Jul-09: -26.3% YoY). Machinery and Appliances which made up 3.1% of exports (Jul-09: 3.6%) fell at a faster clip of -12.3%YoY (Jul-09: 10.2%YoY) and Timber Products adding up to 2.6% of exports(Jul-09:2.6%) fell

15.1%YoY(Jun-09:-16.0% YoY).

Imports at RM38.26b (Ju-09: RM40.98b) dropped by 6.6%MoM and were sharply off by 18.6%YoY (Jul-09: -16.0%YoY). Jan-09′s -30.4%YoY remains the fastest pace of annual contractions ever on record. Imports of intermediate goods made up 69.4% (Jul-09: 68.7%) of imports, and its fall on a percentage change YoY basis dampens somewhat hopes of a strong recovery, thus continuing the strong trend in preceding months that reflect the recovery in imports of raw material needs for goods to be processed for re-export. On the other hand, capital goods imported amounted to 14.3% (Jun-09: 14.8%) of imports, reflecting weaker capacity-boosting investment plans by domestic corporations that support future growth. Consumption goods made up 7.1% of imports (Jul-09: 7.2%), reflecting lower consumer spending. Consumption accounted for 65.3% of Malaysia’s real GDP in 2Q-09.

The Trade Surplus expanded again to RM9.58b (Jul-09: RM7.8b), a 22.2% jump MoM despite the MoM drop in exports. The widening of the trade gap left Aug-09′s surplus at exactly the mean YTD monthly surplus of RM9.58b. whilst it is still sharply off a peak at RM15.5b achieved in Jun-08 it is a healthy level. Whilst the trade balance dropped in Jul-09, it was read as a sign of some strength rather than weakness.

The Aug-09 data thankfully continues to hint at a V-shaped rebound after the exports slump hit a trough (see charts below). The current scenario does not yet rule out an L-shaped recovery for Malaysia although the possibility of a W-shaped recovery or a double-dip recession in the West appears small. The anchor for Malaysia’s export recovery appears to be China, but the sustainability of this source of exports recovery is thought unreliable whilst it is rising under conditions of a massive stimulus. The global economic turmoil may continue to drive further deterioration in the domestic environment.

Domestic sources of demand remain the key and steady implementation of the Stimulus Spending package is key. Our chief worry is the possibility the economy will fail to respond in a sustained manner and dismal private sector growth is observed way past the phase of aggressive public sector stimulus spending at a time when US consumers appear to be veering towards permanent frugality and Asian consumers are not ready to fill the void.

Price of commodities pulled back after rallying making new highs this year amid concerns about global demand which seems to hit a snag as inflation rises. The price of Crude oil closes below US$60 per barrel after staying above US$70 for a few weeks early June.

The price of Crude Palm Oil in the futures market fell 25% in a month from RM2,700.00  to RM2,000 per metric ton. Price of Gold fell as well from US$980 per ounce to USS910.

To add salt the wound in the market sentiment, the increasing H1N1 flu outbreak has become a great cause of concern if companies have to slow down production if employees are being infected. The market finally fell on-month after increasing for three consecutive months. The KLCI closed at 1,067.76 points on the 10th of July, 15.21 points or 1.4% lower than the previous month. The KLCI traded relatively more volatile in a trading range between 1,028.14  and  1,095.91 points last month.

Trading volume was relatively lower. Daily average trading volume fell from 2 billion shares to 1 billion shares on-month. This reflects the weak market sentiment.

As compared to other Asian markets, the Malaysian market is still one of the most defensive market, and notice that the western markets are the weakest performers even for the past 6 months.

The uptrend is still intact as the KLCI is still above the mid and long term 60-and 90-day moving average. The KLCI has tested the short term 30-day average twice and is now below this average market momentum is much weaker as compared to last month. The KLCI is only 7.7 percent above the long term 90 day moving, average (90-SMA) which is currently at 990 points. The difference in the previous month is 11%.

The momentum of the current up trend is getting weaker. The bears have started to take some grip in the market. Momentum indicators like the 14-day

RSI, 14-day Momentum and MACD have heels making new lows since last month. The indicator values are currently near the middle mark whirls separates the bulls and bears dominance. It has been favoring the bulls since end of March this year. The leading Ichimoku Cloud indicator has started to contract as well which means that the uptrend support is getting weaker, but does not sign a major bearish reversal yet at least for the next one month.

The Bollinger Bands which were expanding has also started to contract and this simply means that the KLCI is trading near its 20-day average. The mid­term swing of the Barros Swing indicator shows a lower swing high. The swings were higher since March. The weekly Average True Range (ATR) indicator has also declined almost half on-month. All these volatility indicators are suggesting a weaker momentum.

Conclusion

There were some weak technical indications last month that urges investors and trades to trade cautiously and in the past few weeks, the technical indicators have started to show stronger signs of the market getting more bearish.

Last month, I mentioned that the market may test the next resistance at 1,160 points but with heavy resistance and the KLCI did find strong resistance at 1,095 points. The probability of the KLCI testing the next resistance level has become thin. We may see a start of a bearish trend, as long as the KLCI remains below the 1,160 resistance level.

Expecting the KLCI to go into one more bear rally to complete the price cycle in the 3. or 4′ quarter and we already in the third. The forecast for KLCI is 700 points and is only valid IF the KLCI stays below 1.160 points. I have written my analysis about the price cycle in my previous two articles. Stay out of the market and if you have large positions, liquidate some of them and get them back when price gets lower.

To some poor investors, the markets actually started to crack in early 2008 and then “changed” rapidly in the second half of 2008. But then you thought had a good, solid mutual or unit trust fund managed by a big institution with other great products printed on their glossy brochure. The equity fund you bought at the peak in the previous Bull Run was a solid investment you thought it could do no wrong.

Well, you thought you did everything right and you subscribed the popular buy-and-hold mentality. You didn’t believe that the buy and hold mentality benefits the fund institutions that manage the assets and the sales agents more than you. So the expert who is paid to take care of your investment failed to spot the downside despite all the red flags because he or she was stuck comfortably in the world of decoupling and you watched the fund slide into darkness, even buying more units on the way down to average down your losses.

When the dust finally settled for a while and even with the dead cat bounce you have seen so far, you are still stuck with about 30% losses and part of it belongs to your retirement funds. Suddenly, even your private banker who had lost all the credibility isn’t as confident or brash as he normally is. Your financial planner has also been avoiding you.

You have learned that you need several disciplines in place to improve your long term investing performance. Managing downside risk is one important trick to learn. You have realized that you need to be truly diversified by investing in different asset classes such as equities, commodities and currencies on the planet using different investment styles.

More importantly, you have realized that getting the big picture right is critical. How do you diversify when all asset classes are moving, in tandem? This was a key many faced at the height of the financial crisis in 2008, when all asset classes were collapsing together, but is a concern that remains today whether we like it or not.

Any of our clients who have benefited from our valuable advisory services over the years will tell you that we have long held concerns over the increased tendency for the values of different asset classes to move up or down) in the same direction at the same time regardless of all the beautiful fundamental stories hyped by the shill in the brokerage industry.

We never subscribe totally to long-only or traditional investment positions for our client investment strategy. We know from past experience that alternative investment strategies with low correlation equities and bonds can add tremendous value to any investment portfolio ranging from conservative to aggressive (different investors have different risk tolerances, investment horizons, etc).

Many geniuses in town have continued with play down the role of alternative investments as a true diversifies for any global portfolio at any time to the extent of labeling them as purely speculative.

Client interests should always come first d we have no choice but to grow up. Local investors on the street have been brainwashed for decades that the stock market and traditional investment vehicles are the only realistic ways to build wealth. To invest all your wealth in the stock market either directly or indirectly, that is foolishness, in my view.

I know that there is still a lot of skepticism about the alternative stuff mainly due to lack of exposure. To some institutions that are a little behind the curve, alternative investments should not be viewed as pure imams and a threat to their traditional business models.

The recent global stock rebound was just another dead cat bounce. Never believe in everything that is written here. You should have your own sense of the markets and your own opinions oldie kinds of opportunities you’re looking for. To the mind of this financial writer, global stock markets will chart new lows over the coming months. This is based on our own work. I’m far for being perfect and I may not be right about everything, but I’m willing to hold and defend my independent view.

To some traders, markets have continued to move mysteriously. At the time of writing this missive, the stock markets have continued to deteriorate technically. However, China seems to be an exception in this – for now. I could offer all sorts of other predictions, but what’s the point.

Investors should always look through a different lens, and ask if there’s anything positive we can take away from another round of turmoil? As for long-only equity strategy, it’s not all gloom. Selectivity is going to be important. Are profits guaranteed? Of course not!

In the financial game, there are always the markets are heading next as our usual game plan is to be able to make money regardless of economic and market conditions at various risk levels. I think that the next few weeks and months will not only be very interesting, but also very important. Patience is a virtue as markets could remain trapped in a trading range for weeks before the next big move.

So what? Although action by governments around the world has ensured that the global economy will stay in business, the reality is markets and environments will continue to surprise you on the downside and the upside.

Warren Buffet is famously quoted as saying, “Only when the tide runs out do you see who’s been swimming naked.” It is always better to anticipate risks than to ignore them. Informed caution is our area of expertise and our strong absolute performance in 2008 is a testimony of our hard work.