The meltdown resulted in the collapse of several large banking and financial institutions in the United States and Europe due to weakness originating from the mortgage and mortgage backed securities markets.

However in Asia, many were not too worried about the property market due to the regulated control of the banking system by their country National Bank and the well-established and matured property developers.

As a result of planned developments and sale of property, the Asian property market has remained healthy, despite the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contraction of 6.2 % in the first quarter of 2009.

As an indication of the strength of the property sector, the National Property Information Centre (NAPIC) recorded higher transaction volume of some 4.0% compared with a decline of 17.8 percent in 4th quarter of 2008.

In its study, NAPIC also recorded 79,149 transactions valued at USD 4.701 billion in 1H 2009 with the Residential property sub-sector being the most dominant. Total transaction volumes were 63.8% while total transaction value was 55.1%.

The development of residential property remained promising with upward trends in the completion and starts category but dwindling numbers in new building plan approvals.

Currently, by 1H 2009, the residential property sector recorded an existing supply of 4,230,328 units with and incoming supply of 544,926 units. Planned residential supply is recorded at 669,554 units.

In the demand scenario for the residential sales performances there were lesser units that were launched into the market in the past quarters. However, sales performances during the nine months were between 70% and 85% since the first quarter of 2007.

There were also signs that the Asian property market was affected by global economic and financial crisis but the market has remained healthy overall.

As it continues to notch up 52-week highs, investors finally recognize this as a growth stock. We have revised our price target to 60 cent, continuing to recommend a BUY.

Seasonally, the Apr-08 quarter is the weakest quarter in a year. Yet, revenues grew 28.7%YoY and were also up 3.9% QoQ on seasonally low sales volume. The reason is that sales in the Feb-Apr 08 months last year were affected by inflation taking a severe toll on consumer spending; hence 4Q-08 sales formed a low base for comparison. Operating profits rose 76.1% YoY and 10.3% QoQ. Operating profit margins improved sharply to record levels at 19.7% compared to 14.4% in 4Q-08, a weak quarter. NTPM’s raising of product prices by 15% in Jul-09 to offset rising costs proved fortuitous as material costs subsequently fell. Net rose a strong 76.2% YoY and also 22.1% QoQ.

Operating profit margins improved from a year ago due to recycled newsprint prices continuing to fall from depressed levels in preceding quarters. But a continuing fall in subsequent FY10 quarters is not imputed in our forward forecasts.

Higher working capital requirements in inventory costs and receivables boosted net gearing, which rose from 0.15x in Apr-08 to 0.158x in Apr-09 but this has eased from 0.20X in Jan-0-9 and is manageable.

FYE Apr010, sales are forecast to continue to climb at 11.9%, driven by the full year effect of the price increase and a marginal 4% volume gain. NTPM’s dividend yield is sustainable at 5.5% after the 4-for-5 bonus issue.

Recommendation

We have raised our forecast for FY EApr010 earnings to RM51.7m, also representing

+11.9% growth. Valuation remains undemanding at 8.7X PER. The share’s defensive quality comes from its retention of an astonishing stranglehold on the facial tissue market in the country with 70% market share, and the low price stature of the product. The share price has risen 70.4% in the YTD period, but the promised yield is still at least 5.5%, at our recommended threshold yield for income stocks, giving an anticipated 12-month total return of 28%.BUY.

Occupation      : Co-founder and CEO, Oracle Corporation

Salary              : $500.0 million USD (2008)

Net Worth       : Below $22.5 billion USD (2009)

Spouse(s)         : Adda Quinn (m. 1967–1974), Nancy Wheeler Jenkins (m. 1977–1978), Barbara Boothe (m. 1983–1986), Melanie Craft (m. 2003–present)

Oracle Corporation, one of the major companies developing database management systems (DBMS), tools for database development and enterprise resource planning software from 1977 and has offices in more than 145 countries around the world. As of 2005, it employs more than 50,000 persons worldwide. An oracle database, strictly speaking, consists of a collection of data managed by an Oracle database management system. The distinction between the managed data (the database) and the software which manages the data relies, in Oracle’s marketing literature, on the capitalization of the world database. Oracle Corporation produces and markets the DBMS, which many database applications use extensively on many popular computing platforms.

Larry Ellison was born in Bronx, New York. At nine months, he contracted pneumonia, and his unmarried 19 year-old mother gave him to her great aunt and uncle to raise the child. He was raised in a two-bed room apartment, and until he was twelve years old he did not know that he was adopted. As a boy, Larry Ellison showed an independent, rebellious attitude and often clashed with his adoptive father. He showed a strong aptitude for math and science, and was named student of the year at the University of Illinois. But during the final exams in his second year, Ellison’s adoptive mother died, and he dropped out of school. However, he enrolled at the University of Chicago the following year, dropped out again after the first semester. His father was now convinced that Ellison would never make anything of himself. But Ellison was very fond of and had learned the basics of computer programming in Chicago and took his skill with him to California, having just enough money for fast food.

For the next eight years, he bounced from job to job. When he was working as a programmer for a company called Ampex, he built a large database for the CIA with a code name, Oracle. (Generally, Oracle means a person considered to be a source of wise counsel or prophetic vision). In 1977, Ellison and his former supervisor from Ampex, Robert Miner, founded Software Development Labs, and created a database program compatible with both mainframe and desktop computer systems. Their first customers were Wright Patterson Air Force Base and the CIA. In 1980, Oracle had only eight employees, and revenues were less than $1 million, but the following year, IBM (International Business Machines Corporation is the largest information technology company with a continuous success dating back to 1911) itself adopted Oracle’s SQL (Structured Query Language) for its mainframe systems and for the next seven years, Oracle’s sales doubled every year. The million dollar company was becoming a billion dollar company.

Oracle went public in 1986, raising $31.5 million with its initial public offering, but the firm’s zealous young staff for the rapidly expanding firm habitually overstated revenues, and in 1990 the company posted its first losses. Oracle’s market capitalization fell by 80 percent and the company appeared to be on the verge of bankruptcy. Ellison bit the bullet and replaced much of the original senior staff with more experienced managers. For the first time, he delegated the management side of the business to professionals, and channeled his own energies into product development. The newest version of the database program was a solid success and in only two years the company’s stock had regained much of its previous value.

Oracle’s fortunes continued to rise throughout the 1990s. America’s banks, airlines, automobile companies and retail giants all depend on Oracle’s database programs. Oracle has benefited hugely from the growth of electronic commerce; its net profits increased by 76 percent in a single quarter of the year 2000. As the stocks of other high tech companies fluctuated wildly, Oracle held its value, and its largest shareholder, Ellison, had come very close to a long-cherished goal: surpassing Microsoft’s Bill Gates to become the richest man in the world.

Larry Ellison is far from the run-of-the-mill businessman. Oracle today is the world’s leading supplier of software for information management and the world’s second largest independent software company, boasting revenues of more than $9.7 billion. Ellison is also known as the Other Software Billionaire.

Ellison is a living proof that business is not something learned through academic books, but rather an innate gift. A college dropout, Ellison is renowned for his impeccable business sense, drive and ambition. It is no surprise that in order to achieve Ellison’s success, one must take huge risks and learn from mistakes made along the way. Ellison also demanded at least 100 percent growth in sales of his company’s software, a near impossible feat for a company that already boasts $100 to $500 million in sales. Although Ellison’s high demands led to a highly stressful work environment, it also led to high productivity and Oracle’s present success.

Oracle underwent some changes before becoming the multibillion-dollar corporation it is today. When first founded by Ellison, it was known as Software Development Laboratories and then reincarnated into Relational Technologies until it finally took on the name it is known as today; Oracle, Larry Ellison presently sits on the board of Apple Computer (a company he once dreamed of taking over) and the many honors and awards he received include Entrepreneur of the Year from the Harvard School of Business.

Being a billionaire, Ellison is also believed to be quite a multi-faceted character: playboy, world champion sailboat racer, sports nut, jet pilot, ruthless businessman, marketing genius, and avant-garde thinker. We weren’t kidding when we said he is no ordinary businessman.

To some poor investors, the markets actually started to crack in early 2008 and then “changed” rapidly in the second half of 2008. But then you thought had a good, solid mutual or unit trust fund managed by a big institution with other great products printed on their glossy brochure. The equity fund you bought at the peak in the previous Bull Run was a solid investment you thought it could do no wrong.

Well, you thought you did everything right and you subscribed the popular buy-and-hold mentality. You didn’t believe that the buy and hold mentality benefits the fund institutions that manage the assets and the sales agents more than you. So the expert who is paid to take care of your investment failed to spot the downside despite all the red flags because he or she was stuck comfortably in the world of decoupling and you watched the fund slide into darkness, even buying more units on the way down to average down your losses.

When the dust finally settled for a while and even with the dead cat bounce you have seen so far, you are still stuck with about 30% losses and part of it belongs to your retirement funds. Suddenly, even your private banker who had lost all the credibility isn’t as confident or brash as he normally is. Your financial planner has also been avoiding you.

You have learned that you need several disciplines in place to improve your long term investing performance. Managing downside risk is one important trick to learn. You have realized that you need to be truly diversified by investing in different asset classes such as equities, commodities and currencies on the planet using different investment styles.

More importantly, you have realized that getting the big picture right is critical. How do you diversify when all asset classes are moving, in tandem? This was a key many faced at the height of the financial crisis in 2008, when all asset classes were collapsing together, but is a concern that remains today whether we like it or not.

Any of our clients who have benefited from our valuable advisory services over the years will tell you that we have long held concerns over the increased tendency for the values of different asset classes to move up or down) in the same direction at the same time regardless of all the beautiful fundamental stories hyped by the shill in the brokerage industry.

We never subscribe totally to long-only or traditional investment positions for our client investment strategy. We know from past experience that alternative investment strategies with low correlation equities and bonds can add tremendous value to any investment portfolio ranging from conservative to aggressive (different investors have different risk tolerances, investment horizons, etc).

Many geniuses in town have continued with play down the role of alternative investments as a true diversifies for any global portfolio at any time to the extent of labeling them as purely speculative.

Client interests should always come first d we have no choice but to grow up. Local investors on the street have been brainwashed for decades that the stock market and traditional investment vehicles are the only realistic ways to build wealth. To invest all your wealth in the stock market either directly or indirectly, that is foolishness, in my view.

I know that there is still a lot of skepticism about the alternative stuff mainly due to lack of exposure. To some institutions that are a little behind the curve, alternative investments should not be viewed as pure imams and a threat to their traditional business models.

The recent global stock rebound was just another dead cat bounce. Never believe in everything that is written here. You should have your own sense of the markets and your own opinions oldie kinds of opportunities you’re looking for. To the mind of this financial writer, global stock markets will chart new lows over the coming months. This is based on our own work. I’m far for being perfect and I may not be right about everything, but I’m willing to hold and defend my independent view.

To some traders, markets have continued to move mysteriously. At the time of writing this missive, the stock markets have continued to deteriorate technically. However, China seems to be an exception in this – for now. I could offer all sorts of other predictions, but what’s the point.

Investors should always look through a different lens, and ask if there’s anything positive we can take away from another round of turmoil? As for long-only equity strategy, it’s not all gloom. Selectivity is going to be important. Are profits guaranteed? Of course not!

In the financial game, there are always the markets are heading next as our usual game plan is to be able to make money regardless of economic and market conditions at various risk levels. I think that the next few weeks and months will not only be very interesting, but also very important. Patience is a virtue as markets could remain trapped in a trading range for weeks before the next big move.

So what? Although action by governments around the world has ensured that the global economy will stay in business, the reality is markets and environments will continue to surprise you on the downside and the upside.

Warren Buffet is famously quoted as saying, “Only when the tide runs out do you see who’s been swimming naked.” It is always better to anticipate risks than to ignore them. Informed caution is our area of expertise and our strong absolute performance in 2008 is a testimony of our hard work.